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Futures thinking is a discipline of preparedness, not prophecy. Its purpose is to widen the range of outcomes a person or organisation can recognise early and respond to sensibly — not to name a single future and defend it.
This section sets out the working methods used across the rest of the site: distinguishing trends from cycles, reading weak signals without over-fitting, using base rates and adoption curves, tracing second-order effects, and stress-testing plans against scenarios that would be uncomfortable if true.
It also covers the failure modes: extrapolating exponentials indefinitely, confusing capability with diffusion, anchoring on vivid narratives and mistaking confident language for accuracy.
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A practical method for futures thinking: forecasting versus scenarios, megatrends, weak signals, base rates, adoption curves, second-order effects and black swans.
19 May 2026 · 15 min read
A scenario-based look at ten technologies — AI agents, robotics, personalised medicine, storage, computing, synthetic biology, mobility, space and interfaces — and what each could plausibly change by 2035.
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